Speeding, Punishment, and Recidivism – Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

This paper estimates the effects of temporary driver's license suspensions on driving behavior. A little known rule in the German traffic penalty catalogue maintains that drivers who commit a series of speeding transgressions within 365 days should have their license suspended for one month. My fuzzy regression discontinuity design exploits the quasi-random assignment of license suspensions caused by the 365-day cutoff and shows that 1-month license suspensions lower the probability of recidivating within a year by 20 percent. This effect is not driven by incapacitation and indicates that temporary license suspensions are an effective tool in preventing traffic transgressions. Markus Gehrsitz NBER 5 Hanover Square, Suite 1602 New York, NY 10004 [email protected] He who undertakes to punish with reason does not avenge himself for the past o↵ense, since he cannot make what was done as though it had not come to pass; he looks rather to the future, and aims at preventing that particular person and others who see him punished from doing wrong again. (Plato, Protagoras p. 324)